Middle East/North Africa Archives

Escaping the fragility trap: don’t rush democracy, coax it

Democracy should be coaxed, not rushed, Bloomberg suggests, citing a new report which argues that developed nations trying to help fragile states have been doing it wrong:

They have pushed the “best practices” of wealthy nations, demanding quick multi-party elections and often unpopular, harsh economic policies backed by global financial institutions like the International Monetary Fund. This has resulted in deeply flawed and easily subverted or overturned democracies in countries such as post-Saddam Iraq, post-Mubarak Egypt and post-Gaddafi Libya. In Yemen, according to the report, the program proposed by the international financial institutions demanded a radical transformation of the country within two years.

“The reform program was aborted because the state collapsed through rebellion triggered by one of the reforms,” adds the report from the LSE-Oxford Commission on State Fragility, Growth and Development.

Weak state capacity, lack of legitimacy, and oppositional identities compound a fourth problem: inadequate security manifested in sporadic outbreaks of violence, the report states:

All four of these problems then compound a fifth: the private sector is under-developed so that incomes are low, and the economy narrowly-based. Not only does this feed back onto weak government revenues and a lack of jobs, but it compounds a final problem: the society is exposed to shocks, both political and economic, and these periodically set the society back even when some progress has been made.

“Elections matter,” said former British prime minister David Cameron, who chaired the commission. “But before we rush to multi-party elections, we need to do more to resolve conflicts, achieve power-sharing, and put in place the checks and balances that can help prevent another slide into conflict and failure.”’

Iraqi elections: crafting a democracy?

Credit: WINEP

When Iraq’s national elections open on May 12, they will mark a shift away from the large ethnic and sectarian blocs seen on previous ballots, with candidates more attuned to the demands of the wider body politic, the Washington Institute for Near East Policy writes:

Yet the results could work against Iraqi and American national interests if pressing issues are left to fester, including ongoing refugee problems, reconstruction delays in certain electoral districts, Shia militia intrusion into politics, growing Iranian influence on the ground, and unresolved disputes with the Kurds.*

Due to both overwhelming geostrategic pressures and the fragility of internal structures, it is unlikely that the elections will be a tipping point in the quest for a genuine and lasting democracy, argues Middle East Institute analyst Hassan Mneimneh. Despite the continued prevalence of factionalism, corruption and risk of terrorism, the persistence of discussions about development, independence, rule of law and an inclusive national identity is cause for hope.

The United States should focus its efforts in Iraq on sustained engagement and stabilizing competition to ensure that the country develops after the territorial defeat of ISIL, argues the University of Vermont’s Peter S. Henne. The U.S. should implement political capacity-building programs to enable religious minorities to engage in the political process, he writes in a new report from the Center for American Progress:

The National Endowment for Democracy and the State Department have provided funding for capacity-building programs, which train civil society to engage in the political process. Both offices should direct funding and personnel to Iraqi religious minorities to ensure that they have the tools to interact with other communities and advocate for their interests.

Iraq is an example of a fragile states in which democracy can be coaxed, not rushed, Bloomberg suggests, citing a new report on “state fragility, growth and development”:

External players interested in stabilizing a fragile country should be more interested in the indigenous version of checks and balances, in mechanisms to build national cohesion rather than in a rush to representative democracy as practiced in the West.

“Shared identity needs to supplant identities that are fragmented,” the report says.

Losing control of his campaign narratives, Iraq’s incumbent prime minister is facing questions about his credentials on nationalism, security, and public services, analyst Kirk H. Sowell writes for Carnegie’s Sada Journal.

Given the events that followed the Kurdish referendum in September 2017, the issue of disputed territories in Northern Iraq and related energy revenue-sharing disagreements will also fall to the new government to address, The Atlantic Council adds.**

*To discuss these issues, The Washington Institute is pleased to host a late-afternoon Policy Forum with…..

Ranj Alaaldin, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center, led election-monitoring and fact-finding teams in Iraq between 2009 and 2014.
Michael Knights, a Lafer Fellow with The Washington Institute, has worked in all of Iraq’s provinces and covered all of its elections since 2005.
Phillip Smyth is a Soref Fellow at the Institute and author of its study The Shiite Jihad in Syria and Its Regional Effects.
Bilal Wahab is the Institute’s Nathan and Esther K. Wagner Fellow, focusing on governance in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region. Previously, he established the Center for Development and Natural Resources at the American University of Iraq.

THURSDAY, APRIL 26, 2018. 4:00 PM to 5:30 PM This event will be held at The Washington Institute, 1111 19th Street NW, Suite 500, Washington, DC, 20036. It will also be broadcast live on the WINEP website. To register use this ONLINE EVENT REGISTRATION FORM

**The Atlantic Council invites you for a discussion with a panel of experts on likely post-election dynamics, political alliances to form a new government we may see emerge, political and constitutional reforms the next government needs to adopt, and how the election may impact US-Iraq relations.

Wednesday, April 25, 2018. 12:00 – 1:30 p.m. Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor (West Tower Elevator), Washington, DC.

Featuring

Ambassador Feisal al-Istrabadi, Founding Director, Center for the Study of the Middle East, Indiana University – Bloomington.
Ambassador Rend al-Rahim, Co-Founder and President, Iraq Foundation.
Dr. Harith Hasan Al-Qarawee, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council.
Ambassador Ryan Crocker, Visiting Lecturer and Diplomat-in-Residence. Princeton University.

RSVP

Tunisia could be regional model or inspiration, but….

Tunisia has continued to make progress on democracy, including a Constitution guaranteeing fundamental rights, but there is still a lot to do, says a UN expert.

“Tunisia still faces numerous challenges, including setting up key institutions required by the Constitution, such as the Constitutional Court, and aligning a number of overly-restrictive laws with the democratic and human rights standards proclaimed by the new Constitution,” says the UN Special Rapporteur on freedom of religion or belief, Ahmed Shaheed. The constitution “could be a model or source of inspiration for the entire region,” he said in a statement.

But the government, beholden to its fragile coalition in the parliament, does not have the independence or stability to push through badly needed economic, political, and social reforms such as tax reform or an overhaul of the Ben Ali-era police, Christian Science Monitor reports.

“We have all the polarization and infighting of a congress, but without the strong, functioning central government like the US or Europe,” says Mohsen Marzouk (right), who resigned from Nidaa Tounes to form his own party following government inaction. “The government is too weak to pass through any reforms or meaningful changes Tunisia needs,” he added. “We have gone from the dictatorship of one man to the dictatorship of political parties, and it has been a disaster.”

Forthcoming municipal elections will be so intensely competitive as to resemble “peaceful war,” said Rached Ghannouchi, leader of the Islamist Ennahda Movement. The local polls signal “the age of reformation, consolidation of freedoms, democracy and the authority of the people.”

Tunisia’s 2014 constitution sought to make the state’s commitment to decentralization an explicit and pivotal instrument for change…a catalyst for grassroots democracy and equitable development of the country’s diverse regions, analysts suggest:

They warn, however, that this depends largely on the powers these emerging players are entrusted with. Even by regional standards, the country’s budget allocation to municipalities is an anomaly. While Morocco devotes 11 percent of its budget to local bodies, the number drops to four in the case of Tunisia, a far cry from Denmark’s record 62 percent.

“Perhaps most important … is what the powers of new local elected officials will be; if they will even have access to funds to make decisions autonomous from central state institutions”, Fadil Aliriza, an independent journalist and researcher based in Tunis, told Al Jazeera.

Public protests and prospects for reform in Iran

Credit: MEI

Over the last few months, Iran has experienced a series of street protests in rural areas and social arenas once seen as the key support base for the Islamic Republic, the Middle East Institute notes. Politically active youth are voicing their frustrations with the country’s political, social, and economic prospects. Many of these protests as well as online activism have been met with pushback from conservatives and crackdown from the government. What are the prospects for change in Iran’s existing political system?

The speakers

Daniel Brumberg, Director, Democracy and Governance, Georgetown University,
Senior non-resident fellow, Project on Middle East Democracy
Shadi Mokhtari, Professor, American University
Azadeh Pourzand, Co-founder and executive director, Siamak Pourzand Foundation [and a former Penn Kemble fellow at the National Endowment for Democracy]
Alex Vatanka, moderator, Senior Fellow, MEI

When: Tuesday, April 24, 1:30-3:00PM

Where: Middle East Institute, 1319 18th Street NW, Washington, DC 20036

RSVP

The Awakening of Muslim Democracy: a New Political Islam

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is one of a crop of present-day political leaders who value the respectability an ostensibly democratic election confers but don’t want to risk actually losing the vote, the Guardian’s Simon Tisdall writes:

Worried politicians in Paris, Berlin, London and Washington no longer see a reliable friend and ally in Ankara. They see an autocratic figure exploiting nationalist and neo-Islamist sentiment, xenophobia and Europhobia, and feelings of public insecurity brought on by next door’s Syrian crisis, to justify egregious human rights abuses, institutional vandalism and anti-EU, anti-western policies.

Like Turkey under Erdogan’s ruling AK party, Indonesia has also been held up as an exemplar of the compatibility of democracy and political Islam. But although the presidential election is more than a year away, the rising noise of political Islam is taking on ominous overtones for the incumbent, President Joko Widodo, Asia Sentinel reports.

Islamists have endorsed human rights, democracy, and justice to gain influence and mobilize supporters, according to Emmanuel Karagiannis, a Senior Lecturer in King’s College London’s Department of Defense Studies.

Islamist political parties and groups are on the rise throughout the Muslim world, constituting a new political Islam that is global in scope and yet local in action, he writes in The New Political Islam: Human Rights, Democracy, and Justice. Many Islamists turn to activism, still more participate formally in the democratic process, and some, in far fewer numbers, advocate violence—a wide range of political persuasions and tactics that reflects real and perceived political, cultural, and identity differences.

Egypt and the Contradictions of Liberalism, Interpreting the Iran-Saudi Rivalry and the Rise of Sectarianism, and Challenges to Democratic Consolidation in Tunisia are among the panels at The Center for the Study of Islam & Democracy’s 19th Annual Conference – ‘Authoritarianism and Democratic Decline in the Age of Sectarianism and Populism’, CSID, Thursday, April 26, 2018 from 8:30 AM to 5:30 PM (EDT), Washington, DC.

The future of political Islam: Trends and prospects

Since the 2011 Arab uprisings, the progression of events in the Middle East has provoked new questions on the role of political Islam in the region, the Brookings Center for Middle East Policy notes:

The Arab Spring offered Islamist parties the opportunity and challenge of governance, and the widely varying results led many observers to reconsider basic assumptions on political Islam. Lines drawn between ideology and politics have become blurred. Common conceptions of Islam and the nation-state as incompatible have come under review. As scholars and Islamists alike imagine the future of political Islam, these considerations and others will play a central role.

On April 24, the Center will host a discussion on the state of political Islam and the questions and myths which surround its development.

Panelists

Jocelyne Cesari (above), Professor of Religion and Politics, University of Birmingham; Senior Fellow, Berkley Center for Religion, Peace and World Affairs, Georgetown University | @jocelyne_cesari
Shadi Hamid, Senior Fellow, Project on U.S. Relations with the Islamic World, The Brookings Institution | @shadihamid
Peter Mandaville, Nonresident Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, The Brookings Institution; Professor of International Affairs, Schar School of Policy and Government, George Mason University | @pmandaville

When: Tuesday, April 24, 2018, 9:30 — 11:00 a.m.

Where: The Brookings Institution, Saul/Zilkha Room, 1775 Massachusetts Ave, NW, Washington, DC.

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