Democratic deliberation: From World 1.0 to World 2.0?

     

 

World 1.0

World 2.0

110 successive months of job growth

10 million jobless claims in 2 weeks

10 year bull market across sectors

Winners and losers with extreme outcome inequality

Full employment

30% unemployment

Base rate thinking

First principles thinking

Physical

Digital

Office by default

Remote by default

Office for work

Office for connection, community, ecosystem, makerspaces

Suit, tie, wristwatch, business card

Good lighting, microphone, webcam, home office background

Commute + traffic jams

Home + family

Last mile

Only mile

Restaurants

Groceries + delivery

$4 toast

Sourdough starter

Walkscore

Speedtest

Cities

Internet

$100k for college

Not paying $100k for a webinar

City

Countryside

YIMBY

NIMBY

Internal issues

Exogenous shock

Lots of little problems

One big problem

Stupid bullshit

Actual issues

Too much technology

Too little technology

Complacency

Action

Years

Days

Policy

Capacity

Ideology

Competence

Assume some government competence

Assume zero government competence

Institutions

Ghost ships

WHO

Who?

Trusted institutions

Trusted people

Globalization

Decoupling

Just-in-time

Stockpile

Tail risk is kooky

Tail risk is mainstream

NATO

Asia

Boomers most powerful

Boomers most vulnerable

Productivity growth collapse

Economic collapse

Social services Democrat

UBI Communist

Propaganda

Propaganda

Deficit hawks

MMT

Corporate debt

Government debt

Techlash

Tech a pillar of civilization and lifeline to billions

Break up Amazon

Don’t break up Amazon!!!

Avoiding social issues

Avoiding layoffs

Sports

Esports

Phone is a cigarette

Phone is oxygen

Resource depletion

$20 oil, $0.75 watt solar, <$100/kwh batteries

Stasis

Change

Low volatility

High volatility

Design

Logistics

Extrovert

Introvert

Open

Closed

20th century

21st century

“There are decades where nothing happens,” Lenin observed, “and weeks where decades happen,” analyst Tyler Cowen recalls for Marginal Revolution. Will the COVID-19 crisis trigger a political shift from ideology to competence, from democratic social services to “universal basic income communism“, more propaganda-driven discourse and assumptions of government incompetence (see above)?

Paul Krugman, the economist and columnist, argued recently that American democracy itself is in danger. Combine the relative stabilisation of China, with the threat of a new Great Depression and a deep political crisis in America, and it is clearly possible that Covid-19 will trigger a big shift in power from the US to China. It could even mark the end of American primacy, notes FT analyst Gideon Rachman. But at the same time, two important questions serve as a reality check on excessive declinism, he writes:

Wikipedia

Question one is: what currency in the world do you most trust? Question two: where, outside your home country, would you most like your children to go to university or to work? For a majority of the global middle-class, the answers to those questions have been, respectively, the dollar and the US. If that continues to be the case after the pandemic, then American primacy will have survived Covid-19.

Democratic deliberation

The coronavirus pandemic has suddenly forced us to reconsider what social and economic roles matter most, adds Harvard political philosopher Michael Sandel, the author of the forthcoming The Tyranny of Merit: What’s Become of the Common Good?

Many of the essential workers during this crisis are performing jobs that do not require college degrees; they are truckers, warehouse workers, delivery workers, police officers, fire fighters, utility maintenance workers, sanitation workers, supermarket cashiers, stock clerks, nurse assistants, hospital orderlies and home care providers, he writes for the New York Times:

We should reconfigure our economy and society to accord such workers the compensation and recognition that reflects the true value of their contributions — not only in an emergency but in our everyday lives. ….Such a reconfiguration involves more than familiar debates about how generous or austere the welfare state should be. It requires deliberating as democratic citizens about what constitutes a contribution to the common good, and how such contributions should be rewarded.

@IFES1987 cites @AfricaThis’s recent bulletin which recommends @IFESAfrica’s Elections Digest to keep informed on the intersection of #COVIDxDemocracy in #Africa. Stay up-to-date on the #coronavrius’ impact on elections around the world: IFES.org/COVID-19

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